ForÂ some pretty good analysis of todays UN draft resolution, please see Walid Phares’ article at Counter Terrorism Blog, which outlines current positions pretty well.
There are a LOT of handwringers out there at the moment, but right now Israel wins even if this stops tomorrow, which is not going to happen. Let me explain.
Hezbollah has literally taken itÂ in the shorts,Â and found out their allies aren’t really going to back them the way they thought they were going to. You can point out how well Hezbollah is doing compared to Hamas all you want, but in the end a lot more of them are dying than IDF, that’s what matters in war, asymetrical or not.
Iran can talk trash all they want, but the cage is closing on them as well right now,Â and they know that when real war comes, public opinion doesn’t matter for a long long time. As an example look at the steady agitprop campaigns against the war inÂ Iraq,Â three years of steady drumbeat worldwide, and we are still making progress.
Iran also knows that the US is getting impatient with this Islamist Imperialism, and the next war isn’t going to run long. It will be more like Desert Storm, where the US crushes and walks away. No rebuilding, no help, no remorse.
So Amadinejad, the new leader of the master race, can blather all he wants: he knows if he makes the wrong move right now he’s toast, Qom is toast, and Tehran is toast. If that were to happen, then Iran’s economy would be in shambles, and the current government would not weather that storm. In Lebanon they have been set back economically several years, and when we entered Iraq it was obvious that they were still trying to recover from the war ten years prior. We didn’t try all that hard in Desert Storm either, things could have been much worse for Iraq then.
All the demonstrations and the support fromÂ hezbollah fans and factionsÂ around the world is just waking more and more people to the peril, so that’s not really helping either. It’s war, public opinion doesn’t matter in war forÂ at least the first year, the UN doesn’t matter, and Israel has actually set themselves up into a nice position here.
Israel and the US backersÂ have taken the reasonable position thatÂ they will not leave until an international force is in place. Meanwhile Nasrallah has putÂ Hezbollah into a bad spot by saying they won’t stop fighting until Israel is gone.
So you will not see countries clamoring to move forces into Lebanon for quite a while because hostilities will still be underway. International forces are not going to come in until Israel gets the full pin on their opponent in other words. Look for this to run several more weeks, no matter what resolutions are made.
The last cards Tehran has to play are the Sadr option, (see Counter Terrorism blog article on the Sadr-Nasrallah connection,) and the world-wide suicide bomber campaign. Both might create a short splash in the press, but will prove ineffective. IF the Sadr option is excercised in combination with Iran crossing the Iraqi border, that just makes the decision on the “Iran problem” easy and obvious to our military.
Here’s a view of the upcoming Newsweek article that goes pretty in-depth on the conflict, and points out the large amount of support Hezbollah has from Iran. If you don’t read the whole thing (most of it will be old news to Lizardoids and readers here) please do answer both polls.