Is Pakistan at Verge of War, or Verge of Coup?

There’s a lot of speculation out regarding the tense situation over the Mumbai terror attacks, and that’s expected to increase now that the captured terrorist has been tracked back to a village in Pakistan. Senators McCain and Lieberman are in Islamabad now, after a stopover in India.

Senator McCain has warned Pakistan pretty clearly that India might start bombing LeT camps if Pakistan did nothing, and further that we would try to calm India, but that there wouldn’t be much we would do. To India this is their 9/11 and it would be hypocritical of us if we were say that India couldn’t retaliate.

In the meantime rumors of a military coup in response to the escalation of tension between India and Pakistan are making the rounds, probably as outcome of the meeting General Kayani, Chief of Army staff, held with Prime Minister Gilani yesterday. I would give that one 24 hour rule, since those rumors come out anytime the military visits civil government heads, usually politically motivated in nature. It’s doubtful to me at this point that General Kayani would pull a coup, but he is in solidarity with the Civilian government by saying “show us the evidence.” That makes sense because of the rumors that ISI or former ISI people are involved, those rumors have been floated mostly by the hardliners in India’s intel agency, RAW, and speculative journalists.

At most I would posit that Hamid Gul’s faction of deposed ISI might have been involved. They are the ones with Karachi ties, and used to coordinating across urban and rural terror groups. Some of Gul’s old confidant’s are also on the list that the US is proffering as terrorists to the UN.

The terror groups are not going to let up, they are continuing the new Al Qaeda doctrine of destabilization to create wildernesses, (ungoverned areas where AQ and affiliates can operate; it’s only in areas where zero law exists that people will accept AQ’s extreme brand of Shariah.) Today a bomb was found and defused in a nursing home in India, and in Peshawar the death toll from the bazaar bomb blast has climbed to 34.

I wrote about this possibility a few months back – the war in Afghanistan has become much less popular among young recruits simply because they know they will be fighting Afghanistan Army and police there, or other muslims. The Kashmir is a more popular cause within Pakistan, so it’s not a surprise that AQ has shifted focus to that because they have decreased greatly in popularity since starting the civil war in the Frontiers of Pakistan.

There’s also one other player in this to pay attention to: China also holds a piece of the Kashmir, and while they are calling for calm, they are holding joint war games with India right now.

13 Taliban were killed by Pakistan army forces in Swat, and the Taliban continues their targetted assassinations of government, tribal, and ANP party members there. The war in the frontiers continue, but at times it doesn’t appear that the civilian gov’t realizes how serious it is. The clock is ticking on them now, if they don’t get the Taliban and AQ leadership soon, it is they who will be gotten. More on this at The Long War Journal. Roggio is speculating that ISI itself, and not just the renegade elements, migh be directly involved.

What’s on the mind of the average Pakistani? The Chief Justice Dogar case, where a SC judge’s daughter was given higher marks in school by decree. In Pakistan, they love their constitutional crisis’ as this is being looked at by the National Assembly.

If Pakistan does not do anything here, at some point it will become necessary for others to step in. I could see an India/China/US intervention if the government doesn’t move soon since they are firmly on the path to failed state and Somalihood now.

US to UN Soon: Hamid Gul is a Terrorist

As a followup to yesterday’s story on Hamid Gul, Bill Roggio has made some queries and has a solid report up at The Long War Journal. Well worth your your time to read.

US asks UN to Declare Hamid Gul a Terrorist

The US is asking the UN to declare Hamid Gul and three other ex-ISI terrorists, this according to the International Times. Since Hamid Gul himself is a known liar, (see this interview two weeks after 9/11,) I wouldn’t put it beyond him to float this finely crafted newsbit on his own. So the 24 hour rule is in effect on this one, we will wait and see what the other papers say. The US Embassy is denying Hamid’s Tale:

The US has given four names of former ISI officials, including Lt-Gen (retd) Hameed Gul, to the UN Security Council to put them on the list of international terrorists.

Government of Pakistan is aware of this move, which is considered here by some as part of an international conspiracy to target the ISI, whose reformation has already been sought by Washington.

The US embassy in Islamabad claims to be completely unaware of this move while the foreign office spokesman also did not come up with any explanation on the matter despite being approached on Tuesday.

However, Lt-Gen (retd) Hameed Gul confirmed to this correspondent that he was included in the list of those four or five former ISI officials whose names had been provided to the UN secretary-general by the US government to be included in the list of international terrorists.

Gul admitted that he had already met the foreign affairs secretary to discuss the issue. A Foreign Office source also told this correspondent that the issue had already been referred to the prime minister’s office but despite the lapse of a few weeks, no decision had been taken by the government so far. It is not clear whether or not Islamabad wants to pursue intense lobbying to stop this thing to happen.

A diplomatic source in Washington, however, told this correspondent that it would not be easy for the United States to get all these names enlisted in the list of terrorists because it would require the consent of the all the five permanent members of the Security Council.

Foreign Office spokesman Muhammad Sadiq was contacted on Tuesday to give its response on the matter but The News has not heard anything from his side till the filing of this report on Wednesday night. Off the cuff, Sadiq said he had heard or read about this but was not sure about the case.

The Pakistan embassy in Washington is not in the know of this move. Pak envoy to US Hussain Haqqani, when contacted, said he had no comment to offer as no such thing was routed through the Pakistani embassy.

This is coming from a behind the scenes puppet master who’s bridged terror groups and politics in Pakistan for decades. An old-guard ISI Lt General who some would also say was tied to Lal Masjid, the murders and kidnappings of Chinese nationals, and some of the targetted assassinations of Pakistan and US Government officials. Who knows, perhaps in the wake of the terror murders in Mumbai he’s feeling a bit vulnerable as old friends are on the run and of little aid at the moment.

Morning Update; Gitmo, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India and more

Normally I spend the morning surfing news and the web and posting newslinks at Little Green Footballs but Charles’ site is serving a blank once you get below the header ad this morning, so I’ll do my updates here. Here’s a picture to look at while I’m compiling.
UPDATE: It appears that Charles at LGF is going through the tribulations of installing new, beefier servers, give him time and things will be back faster than ever.

Obama’s Plan to Close Guantanamo Forces Decision About Inmates

Obama Picks Richardson (ermmm… how well will he get along with Hillary?)

Celebrities are fighting like mad to be part of “The In Crowd” on January 20th. (We got our own way of walkin… we got our own way of talkin…)

In Israel this is probably a case of the “relief” organization not letting the Israelis search the ship for weapons before entry, a precaution performed at every port in the world, but FWIW, Libya in High Dudgeon calls for Security Council Intervention.

Meanwhile the tense situation continues over the Mumbai terror attacks, but I do believe that both governments are calmer than the usual incendiary political talking heads on both sides of the issue would have you believe. From various reports I’ve seen that the nuclear readiness on either side has not increased, troops have not moved or been reinforced at borders, and talking between the governments proceeds. India has demanded that Pakistan hand over the terror masterminds and accomplices, Zardari in Pakistan is saying that the terrorists are “stateless” actors, and that in no way was the government of Pakistan involved. At this point I believe it, right now Pakistan is desperate for more trade with India.

UPDATE: Rice to Zardari: (in different and more words) ‘ If you don’t take care of those terror training camps we don’t care if India does…’

The Daily suicide bombing or Taliban attack has occurred in Pakistan, and it appears that they are stepping up raids in urban areas, rounding up the usual suspects. Here’s a list of India’s most wanted, if Pakistan could find some of these terrorists and turn them over it would ease tensions a great deal.

The Governor of Kandahar, General Raufi, whose watch the Taliban jail break occurred on is stepping down after a short four months in position.

On the domestic front the Millenium Bomber, who has been singing like a bird, is back in court.

Industrial Scale Wind Energy is not pure as the driven snow, and here’s some interesting graphics on various power sources. There’s also that small problem that Wind turbines have with icing.

In Thailand the Airports have re-opened with the demonstrators leaving after the court ouster of the PM.

The New Anglicans appear to be splitting from the pack, with a new conservative schism forming in the Episcopalian church in North America.

Hot Air discusses opposition to Anti-Gay Adoption laws, the conflict comes when you turn pro-children or pro-family into anti-gay. It’s mostly religious conservatives behind the laws, but as I’ve pointed out here gays do have children already. While it’s preferred to place children in male-female families, it is so preferred that some children get no parents at all?

Pizza Prisoner Bomber gets 45 Years