First Snow in Pakistan

Snow is falling in the higher passes as people prepare for winter, and the country faces the economic downturn being seen worldwide. Many pin it on the downturn in the US, but the housing bubble burst in the US is really not the whole of it, it’s just another symptom. The downturn we see now is really the spreading wake of two years of sustained high energy prices. Pakistan got an IMF loan to weather the economic drought, and the government is having the usual sniping in their chambers as everyone tries to deflect blame and flames. There have been crackdowns and arrests of Foreign exchange operators, as the government tries to prevent money from fleeing the country (note to intel types: think on who would be refugee under the current scenario, and why money would be leaving…)

The war in Bajaur and Swat continues at low key, and there is supposed to be an operation underway to tackle Mohmand agency. On the border of Mohmand in Charsadda, a suicide bomber in a van attacked a school being used by Police and paramilitaries, killing four at the gate and himself. Authorities blocked the Peshawar-Bajaur road while they investigated. There are now “Peace activists” in a camp in Peshawar led by a black turban as well. That would bear some watching, on the other hand it could just be a poseur trying to sell shuttlecock burqas…

The authorities arrested an Afghanistan Taliban ex-minister trying to leave for Dubai under false papers, the detainee was civil aviation deputy minister during the period the Taliban ruled in Afghanistan.

President Zardari is attending the UN interfaith conference and met with Sect’y Condoleeza Rice on the sidelines. The goverment has stabilized a bit in the wake of the IMF loan and after making the decision to proceed with the operations in Bajaur. While US missile strikes have become routine the outcry has lessened as suicide bombings continue and the urban core areas feel threatened.

The TTP taliban appear a bit fractured even though they are fighting to hang on in Swat and Bajaur, it appears that some are trying local warlord ploys. Any of the splinter groups will still take orders from Al Qaeda however the influence of Baitullah Mehsud has lessened in some areas, notably Khyber Agency.

What’s ahead? Expect more frontier unrest as food and fuel goes scarce in some areas due to fighting, the usual Taliban road blockages and hijackings, as well as the summer harvests running low during January-February. Border incursions to the north in Afghanistan will problably lessen and Taliban transiting north will swing wide through Iran to get around the frozen passes if they go at all with the war in the frontiers. I am seeing indications which are not yet clear of a shift in strategy, watch for movement at all Pakistan borders — this might be the beginning of an exodus.

This report was compiled from various news stories in The International News and the Daily Times

Update: TTP Claims the Suicide Bombing

Murtha Mouthing Off Against the Marines Backfires: Political Ad

 

Moonbat Murtha used Kerry’s tactics to try to convict our Marines before they had been tried. He went before the press and made many outrageous statements without basis in fact, and essentially disproven in the seven cases so far since all cases so far clear our fine Marines of the charges. The state of Pennsylvania needs to see Murtha mouthing off again before the election.

Two Jihadis Dead in Philippines Terrorist Attack

In the Philippines 17 soldiers were wounded and two terrorists died in fighting after Moro Islamic Liberation Front (affiliated with Al Qaeda) attacked two outposts in the town of Tipo Tipo on Basilan Island. The military states that Abu Sayyaf fighters were involved as well, and the attack on the outpost was sophisticated, including IED’s planted on the retreat route.

This is just another front in the global war on terror and the attack breaks a ceasefire just a week after the Islamists demanded that troops be removed from the island with the threat of attacks if they were not.

Capsule analysis:

The Southern Philippines Islamist Jihadis can bluster, but as elsewhere they can’t mount effective attacks against prepared military forces. Expect one to two more  abortive attacks on military forces before they revert to form. They prefer soft, unprepared targets and will likely revert to terror bombings, kidnappings, and IED attacks in the months ahead if the truce is not re-established.

More at Breitbart:

At least 17 marines were wounded and two Muslim separatist rebels killed as fierce prolonged fighting broke out in the southern Philippines Sunday, the army said. The violence erupted after Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) rebels attacked two military outposts in the town of Tipo Tipo in Basilan island, the military said, causing civilians to flee the area in fear.

Ten marines were wounded in the initial clash, while another was hurt when an armoured personnel carrier ran over a landmine, the military said.

Six other soldiers were wounded in running gunbattles that raged throughout the day, while two MILF rebels were killed, the military said.

In a statement, the military said MILF rebels were backed by fighters from the Al Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf group, which also operates in the area.

“We condemn the treacherous attack by some MILF members with the aid of the terrorist Abu Sayyaf in Basilan this morning,” the statement said.

It said air support has also been dispatched to evacuate the wounded and help ground forces.

MILF chief negotiator Mohagher Iqbal blamed the troops for the hostilities and denied knowledge of casualties on either side.