News from the UN security council, President Bush is proposing a 13 point sanctions list
The United States proposed Monday that the U.N. Security Council adopt a resolution calling for imposing sanctions such as international inspection of cargo to and from North Korea and a ban on trade in luxury goods, council sources said.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton made the 13-point proposal during closed consultations at the 15-member Security Council on Monday morning, the sources said.
The U.S. proposal also includes prohibiting trade in all materials with direct or dual use application for weapons of mass destruction, taking steps to prevent abuse of financial system such as counterfeiting, and freezing assets and transactions associated with WMD.
It also calls on the Security Council to review North Korea’s response and the need for additional action in 30 days, the sources said.
The five permanent members of the Security Council — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — plus Japan, which chairs the council for the month of October, were set to hold consultations on Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile North Korea’s ambassador isÂ stating that theyÂ should be congratulated, Ahmadinejad is saying it’sÂ Bush’s faultÂ along with the crazy Dems over at KOS. South Korea halted an aid shipment that was about to depart.
The bomb was less powerful than expected, the bomb test succeeded however. Intel suggested a yield in the 400 kiloton range, however Russian estimates have it in the 5-15 Kiloton range. Last report was that Korea potentially had 12 nuclear weapons, but some estimates range as high as 20. There are also suspicions that the Russian estimate is inflated, South Korea’s estimate was 500 tons, or not even a kiloton. The data is being crunched more thoroughly now.
South Koreaâ€™s stock market is taking a hit, but that should be short lived. As things calm tomorrow, so will the markets.
Please take a moment to thank President Reagan for creating Star Wars, and please remember it was George W. Bush and the Republicans who revived it. If the North Koreans launch a nuke, we now have chance to intercept it.Â
Fully-layered systemsÂ are notÂ wholely in place yet, but expect that to accelerate — we have to intercept bases, one in San Francisco, and one in Fort GreelyÂ Alaska.
See this missile defense linkÂ for lots of good news in that arena, both Japan and South Korea already have missile defense initiatives underway, with Japanâ€™s PAC-3 batteries near completion. We are trying to convince both Poland and Canada to join us by installing their own missile shield systems in partnership with us.
Please urge your congress critters to do more, as Iâ€™ve stated in the past: the nuclear Djinn is out of the bottle, itâ€™s only a matter of time before many nations have nuclearÂ weapons no matter how much we try to stop it. (Not that we should give up on any of our efforts to do so.) Missile Defense is one of the most important things for peace and stability in the future. Think about your children please.
There are a lot of questions now for the region, that go beyond how parties will initially react.
Looking longer term than the drive to sanctions, the regional effects will be notable. If you suspect that the Chinese gave tacit but secret permission to DPRK, then expect more under-the-counter destabilization efforts in Southeast and Southwest Asia, with an eye on Nepal andÂ Myanmar aka Burma. You would expect the Chinese to come out in that case initially strong for sanctions against North Korea, but then to back down.
If the Chinese didnâ€™t give tacit permission and if they are just as upset as we are, then expect them to back some sanctions and to stick with them. Also expect North Korea to go back to their old game of playing China off against Russia, remember that Russia also has a border on North Korea and a long-standing relationship.
Do not expect this to affect Chinaâ€™s or Russiaâ€™s stance on Iranâ€™s drive to gain nuclear weapons, they both like a world in which Iran is opposed to the US.
Japan will drive strongly to re-militarize, howeverÂ I would not expect them to use their plutonium reserves to make nuclear weapons themselves, since this would highly agitate China and they have a cultural antipathy towards nuclear weapons. This could change with the threat over time however. Japan will continue deploying anti-missile defenses, and will probably buy more aegis cruisers. The thing to watch for is if they start buying or building (either is possible, Japan has a strong ship-building industry) Aircraft carriers.
South Korea could easily have a change to more conservative government next election cycle, the populace there is highly mercurial when it comes to politics.
Expect Iran to continue their path towards nuclear weapons, this can do naught but encourage them.
Additional & more Detailed Analysis at Fourth Rail
The usual condemnations, warnings, sanctions, etc from the UN are to be expected, but as we know those methods are highly ineffective. What else could be done?
1. Blockades & cutting all aid – not a highly palatable option as the already starving people of North Korea will start dieing again, and at some point Kim’s military would force him to invade South Korea or they would revolt to break the situation open. Either case, lots of dead North Koreans.
2. Military: There are levels to this – we could merely bomb facilities, but this is unlikely to get the actual nuclear weapons that exist. It would halt production of news ones. Potential risks: North Korea bombing South Korea, or invading.
3. Let China have North Korea — look the other way while they invade. Assist if needed — maybe they’ll trade for Taiwan? (there’s got to be some humor here somewhere folks.) The problem with this is that China probably doesn’t want North Korea, who would?
4. Sit tight, ring North Korea with missile defense systems (already in progress) and tighten existing sanctions.
5. Buy some of Kim’s military officers and instigate a coup. This is the option I like best, but I only like it if we can get the Chinese to work the deal.