Noblesse Oblige

Al Qaeda has murdered 41 more Muslims in a failed attack on former Interior Minister Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao. This is their second failed attempt, last April they murdered 25 Muslims and injured his son in a failed attack on him, this time Sherpao is uninjured but his son was hurt again. The attack took place inside the Mosque in Sherpao’s home town of Charsadda. More from Reuters:

CHARSADDA, Pakistan (Reuters) – A suicide bomber killed at least 41 people in a mosque in northwest Pakistan on Friday where a former interior minister was offering Muslim Eid festival prayers with worshippers, officials said.

Intelligence officials said as many as 50 people may have died when the attacker detonated explosives inside the mosque but the number could not be immediately confirmed by police.

The former minister, Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao, survived unhurt but at least 61 people were wounded in the blast. Ten of the wounded were in a critical condition, Federal Secretary of Interior Syed Kamal Shah told Reuters.

Previous articles:

Taliban Attacks Minister; Warnings to Sherpao

Suicide Attack Injures Sherpao and Son, Kills 25 

PREVIOUS ATTEMPT:
AP and CNN are reporting a Suicide Bomber attack on the Interior Minister of Pakistan, Aftab Khan Sherpao. Sherpao is one of the most visible and popular leaders in the NWFP, and although he sits on the opposition bench, he’s been very supportive of Musharaaf’s moves in the region. Sherpao has also long been seen by some as a possible successor to Musharaaf if the PML ever got pushed aside by the PPP (it’s unlikely that Benazir Bhutto could ever return and hold office except by proxy due to the widely unpopular corruption of her tenure.)

From CNN:

A suicide attacker detonated a bomb at a public meeting in northwestern Pakistan on Saturday, killing at least 12 people and wounding the country’s interior minister, police said.

Security guards blocked the attacker as he tried to get close to Interior Minister Aftab Khan Sherpao after he had finished his speech at the meeting in Charsadda, an intelligence official said. The attacker detonated the bomb moments later.

Mohammed Khan, a police official, said the minister suffered minor injuries and was in stable condition. He was being shifted to a hospital in the nearby city of Peshawar.

Khan said at least 24 people were wounded, at least 10 critically.

Khan said the son of Sherpao, Sikandar Khan Sherpao, and some lawmakers and security officials were among the injured.

The intelligence official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of his job, said investigators had found the head of the suicide bomber. He had no details on the attacker’s identity. 

Things are heating up in Waziristan, and it’s possible this could be a retaliation strike. Please stop by The Fourth Rail to see what might be driving the retaliation.

More on the the Sherpao family’s rise to political power in Pakistan here and here.

Update: The death toll has now risen to 25 28 31 and newer reports state that the suicide bomber was Afghani. In the Daily Times a former Intelligence Bureau employee states the raids are “retaliatory”. While both statements could be agitprop, they have the feel of truth to me. 

More and more refugees who have been taken in the past few years are being pushed out of Pakistan, and some are losing property, wealth and positions in the process. There’s bound to be some pushback, however if Pakistan wants a reasonable future it can’t continue to host refugees who have no good reason not to return to their native lands.

The other thing in the background are the old-guard ISI who use these disaffected refugees as tools by paying the mullahs bribes. Whenever something like this occurs it’s an almost automatic that if you dig deep enough you will find some connection to Hamid Gul — I have not seen one here yet, but certainly would not be surprised if I did.

From Daily Times:

Former Intelligence Bureau chief Massod Sharif while talking to a private TV channel on Saturday said suicide blasts in Pakistan were the reaction to military action in the tribal areas of the NWFP. This is the internal reactionary force resorting to suicide attacks to register their protests against incidents like the bombing of Bajaur madrassa and military action in Waziristan, Sharif said in Geo television’s programme “Meray Mutabiq.” Muttahida Qaumi Movement Convener Dr Imran Farooq condemned the blast saying the moment had come for all the people against religious extremism to join hands and make a joint strategy to counter terrorism and religious extremism. Awami National Party head Asfand Yar Wali said if the present situation continued the future of Pakistan was in danger. He said the security situation in NWFP was alarming. Suicide bombers register and ensure their presence by killing innocent people whenever they want and if the country’s interior minister is in danger, then the people have much to fear, said Geo television’s senior analyst Dr Shahid Masood while commenting on the Charsadda blast. He said the suicide bombers were reminding the government that they were still strong and could hit anyone. He suspected that in the present situation it would become very difficult for Aftab Sherpao, Asfand Yar Wali and all the liberal forces in NWFP to continue their politics in the province.

Yet another possible motive is speculated on in the Editorial section Daily Times. This one is as possible as the others, even if this isn’t the motive, the editorial is an interesting read that I recommend.

One last note : As of now Pakistanis in general are pretty mad about this, now that the crows are roosting in their faces they are angry.

For the first time in a Washington Post interview Musharraff has admitted that Osama Bin Laden “could be inside Pakistan” and he noted the Bajaur region where it runs alongide the Kunar valley in Afghanistan. This is where I had him last year, but I doubt if he is still there.

The reasons I doubt Bajaur are twofold — usually you don’t find Osama Bin Laden where there is real fighting – he poses with RPG’s well, but he doesn’t lead from the front and the same is true for Zawahiri. They both exhort others to fight holy war but really are both cowards at heart.

The second reason is that TNSM is involved, and like when Bin Laden escaped Tora Bora, they could be acting as a smokescreen while he is active elsewhere. (During the fight at Tora Bora the Fazlullah madrassas flooded the region with students, essentially a children’s crusade in which many died to cover Bin Laden’s retreat. Mullah Fazlullah’s brother was arrested when he returned to Pakistan after being defeated, and after finding out that Bin Laden didn’t really want him.)

Meanwhile the Taliban are denying that Bin Laden is in Pakistan, and Baitullah Mehsud has declared himself unopposed leader of the Taliban in Pakistan under the UTMP umbrella organization of “Pakistani Taliban.”

Since there’s been infighting between the Wazirs in North Waziristan and the Mehsuds in South Waziristan in the past, it’s likely that Mehsud has pushed with into North Waziristan or that he’s reached accomodation with the Taliban there and now dominates the region.  The UTMP group says that their goals are aligned with the Afghanistan Taliban, and that they align to Mullah Omar as their Caliph, but also state that their fight is within Pakistan.

They threatened that if their demands are not met that they will retaliate, this from an Maulavi Omar via a Dawn reporter in Tank:

He denied that the Afghan Taliban had formed the UTMP, but acknowledged that they shared the same ideals and goals.

“Of course, our mission is the same and we believe that Mullah Omar is our caliph but, at the same time, we have our own separate struggle which is limited to Pakistan.”

He reiterated his threat to the government that if military operations in tribal areas and Swat were not halted within 10 days, militants would launch attacks on security forces throughout the country.“We have given a 10-day deadline to the government of Pakistan to withdraw troops from tribal areas and Swat.”

He demanded release of all Taliban prisoners, including the Lal Masjid cleric Maulana Abdul Aziz.

At the same time from North Waziristan we have news that the “militants” have called a ceasefire until 1/1 – which covers Eid-ul-Adha. This comes from one (Mullah?) Ahmadullah Ahmadi, a spokesman for Hafiz Gul Buhadur whose been really talkative the past few months, as this google search reveals. (ignore the soccer & cricket links.)

So a mixed message, an indication that the “Pakistan Taliban” might not be as unified as portrayed, and as this editorial analysis indicates, there are more ties that still bind to AQ.

Keep in mind that AQ groups typically have other causes such as tribal nationalism, revolt, or other regional cause to keep the troop levels up. So while the rank and file Taliban might think they are fighting local, their leadership probably is not.

The “we are fighting our own fight within Pakistan” statement is the cloak and color of the day, just as the names in TNSM/HuJI, and other umbrella groups change depending on where they are and what they are doing. The mixed message (truce vs. deadline) is also symptomatic of AQ’s loose style of communication and coordination.

It still appears that there are two “Warlords of Pakistan” with slightly differing aims: Baitullah Mehsud, and Hafiz Gul Buhadur.

If Bin Laden or Zawahiri are in Pakistan, it’s more likely that they are in Peshawar, Quetta, or Karachi where they can easily get to a studio for taping, and stay in close touch with the old-guard ISI factions during the election season. In the latest taped threat released Sunday, Zawahiri stated that Musharraf would soon fall.

A Quick rundown of other news events:

The police SSP groups have rousted Peshawar, rounding up 68 criminals from gangs.

The oil shortfall has reserves in Pakistan at all-time lows, like many countries they are caught by the crunch of the rising prices. (see second editorial in link above.)

There have been three suicide attacks on the military since Friday, the latest killed 12 people in Kohat.

30 more TNSM have been arrested in Swat.

The effects of All Parties Democracy Movement (APDM,) boycotting are seen in the election filings – there are 7,335 filings vs. the expected number of 8,000-9,000. The parties sitting out are the hard-liners from MMA, and the fringe groups and “single-cause” parties that also feed recruits to AQ. This is the same tired ploy we see throughout the mideast – the extremist jihadi’s “political front groups” try to invalidate elections and decisions by boycott, while the military wings disrupt and destroy the society around them. It’s a traditional ploy of the Neo-takfirists.

 UPDATE: More news on this from Jihad Watch.