Yesterday Musharraf downplayed the import of going after Al Qaeda vs the import of going after the Taliban, and in a recent article we see that the Bush administration is worried about the lack of intel on Taliban and their related groups. Both are correct, as an overall danger in the region the Taliban is the greater threat. Worldwide and for US interests, Al Qaeda obviously looms larger.
As I’ve said in the past – the Taliban taught Al Qaeda more than AQ taught them regarding 4GW. With the numerous secret cells and organizations spun up over the years by Pakistan’s ISI came pockets of great expertise in certain areas, and a deep leadership cadre, with each leader maintaining their own bands of loyal followers. They are a fractious lot, but in times of strife they tend to tighten up and ally better.
Breaking down which groups are which, and where they are aligned with tribes, and which groups are disliked by particular tribes seems somewhat important. If we can do that we get a leg up in the Frontiers, and eventually we gain our goal of finding Bin Laden.
Right now in the Wazirs they are grouped under the Waziristan umbrella of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, and in Afghanistan under Mullah Omar, and there are loose odds and ends as well (Hekmatyar.) One of those loose ends in Pakistan, TNSM, recently led the uprising in Swat, but as I’ve said in the past TNSM actions tend to be feints and distractions to mask AQ’s real movements.
The other groups come into play from the Kashmir theater, and they are much less known – they tend to not have ‘media wings” and tend toward greater secrecy. Most of the successful actions in nearby India have been carried out by a bundled umbrella group comprised of Jaimsh e Muhammed, HuJI, and Laskar e Taibr (multiple spellings here for all three btw.)
Since these groups tend to rename themselves depending on the operation and cause, they are particularly hard to ferret out. The current drift or change to focus within Pakistan came starting in October 2006, when Musharraf actually shut down their Kashmir border training camps and defunded them.
At this blog I’ve done ok sometimes in predicting movements and actions as well as stances particular groups would take, and I’ve had some strikeouts. My intel comes soley from reading english language newspapers in Pakistan and Pakistani forums and blogs.
I suspect our intel services are already doing that. What I would recommend if they aren’t already doing this is to hire some Urdu speakers to start scouring the Urdu newpapers and leaflets in the frontiers. The information is always in Urdu first and I would wager that much gets left out when it hits the papers that international audiences read.
Hopefully we have Urdu speaking radio monitors, e.g. listening to Maulana Earthquake’s broadcasts regularly might have tipped us off to things transpiring early.
Lastly, human intel is always the best of all, but the hardest to get and maintain. The Bazaars of Pakistani towns and villages are rife with both rumors and true information. If we could find a way to tap bazaar gossip we would get ahead of the game.
Please take a stop by Captain’s Quarters – the media might not think it’s news, but it is something you need to know. The Hillary Papers
And remember, this isn’t a political action commitee or an electoral office campaign. This was the elected government of the United States discussing how it would steamroller opposition to nationalizing an entire industry by smearing them and by avoiding discussion of the policy itself.
The HCTF anticipated a tough debate over its proposal to nationalize American health care, and it proposed some specific remedies — including using the DNC to conduct intelligence operations.
While Musharraf is reassuring the world that elections will be fair and that the winning party will be allowed to rule post elections, the fighting in South Waziristan is continuing. Musharraf’s statements from Brussels are here. It demonstrates either foolhardiness or confidence that he is out of country at this time leading up to the elections.
In Ladha village in South Waziristan the Taliban fired on Military gunships which were on a re-supply mission, the gunships returned fire with the military effect unknown. Some civilians were reported as killed, but as these things go it could be Taliban dead. Report at Daily Times.
A close aide to Baitullah Mehsud, Younas Mehsud, was captured with explosives and weapons, and the chief of US Centcom, Admiral Fallon, will be meeting with Chief of Army Staff, Ashfaq Kayani for a day in Pakistan. (It never fails that Pakistan captures a HVT right before US visits, we should visit more often.) More here
The teen suspect who confessed to being part of the Bhutto assasination cell led police to his alleged handler, who had a suicide vest and bomb making materials in his possession.
In NWFP Intelligence Bureau Deputy Director Nisar Ahmed Khan was assasinated by gunmen in a further bid to destabilize the province after the two failed attacks on Sherpao.
Sectarian violence continues with another attack on a Moharram procession.
I took time out from the discussion at Jihad Watch to snap some photos, cook some dinner, play with the puppy, and paint the bathroom. Here is this evening’s moon.
In an anti-war stunt the Anti-war group “no fear” opened public phones from New York to Iran today so New Yorkers could talk to “ordinary Iranians.” Since even the internet is controlled in Iran, there’s a question as to how ordinary the Iranians were however.
Story at Breitbart.
Dick Morris points out the Clinton’s support from foreigners at the American Congress today in light of the debate answer on Saudi investment in Citigroup.
Now we have Saudis who are heavily invested in the Clinton Library:
Now, comes word from Dick Morris of a political issue that surfaced during the recent Nevada debates: should we be concerned about such strategic investments from the Saudis and oil-rich Gulf Sheikdoms. Hillary Clinton thought it was alright, if the investments were vetted properly. As Morris, who was a political counselor to her husband, has pointed out President Clinton has received $10 million annually from Saudis and the oil Shiekdom of Dubai for his Presidential Library in Little Rock, Arkansas. That revelation is tantamount to a real conflict of interest between the Clinton and the American public over the threat of financial sharia this Presidential year.
In the past I’ve detailed those entanglements as well:
Previous articles on the Clinton Campaign of Corruption:
There’s a growing list of suspect and criminal Hillary Clinton supporters that just keeps getting bigger, today it’s time to add Aaron Tonken to the list.
William Danielcyzk ; Hsu Surrenders — Board of Trustees for New School, New York ; Sant Chatwal – Indian Immigrant Bundler ; “Ray” Jinnah Rehman — previously of Pal-C ; Vinod Gupta — of InfoUSA ; Mayor Samuel Rivera ; Peter Paul??; Aaron Tonken.
It’s also noteworthy that former Senator Bob Kerrey, and his “The New School’s” connection to Clinton surfaced again a few days back in an attack on Obama. The New School is part and parcel of the Clinton Machine, as evidenced by the previous board members (see links above,) and the 9/11 commission hearings orchestrated there.
“I supported the Bush tax cuts. John McCain voted against the Bush tax cuts with the Democrats twice,” he said before a crowd of mostly older voters. He later said Mr. Romney was “equivocal” in his support for the cuts.
Asked during a press briefing if he was breaking the 11th Commandment, Mr. Giuliani replied, “You mean contrast? Nah, I just pointed out where there are differences”
In Florida Rudy Guiliani is still running at the top of the pack with McCain in the polls, and this comes after a virtual vacumn of Guiliani news in the press the past two weeks. He’s really had no exposure as the initial small delegate primary wars have staged, but he’s still the man to beat in Florida for the other candidates.
In one primary Rudy can jump to the front of the pack and take the lead in the hunt for delegates. He’s actively challenging the others on their policies and positions, and the campaign now promises to turn very interesting. Story from AP:
Girding for battle as the rest of the GOP field descended upon Florida, Rudy Giuliani challenged them for the first time by name.
“Do they agree that you should have a national catastrophic fund?” he said in a Saturday tour of the Everglades. “I support it — I was the first one to support it. Now let’s find out where the others — John McCain and Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson — let’s see what their position is on this.”
For weeks, the former New York mayor has had this state to himself, having pulled out of the early primaries to focus time and cash on Florida’s 57 delegates. While others rallied late votes in South Carolina, he attended a round table about Florida’s space industry and toured the Everglades.
But it has cost Giuliani — in raw delegate counts and lost news cycles to those men who did contend the six Republican primaries so far. Giuliani finally won his first delegate Saturday, in Nevada. But he is behind even long-shot Ron Paul in that department, after Paul picked up four out West.
Stretching to stay relevant, Giuliani went on the attack and called two big allies to his side.
Actor Jon Voight and former FBI director Louis Freeh, Giuliani’s homeland security adviser and Delaware campaign chair, introduced him at a rally in the central Florida retirement community The Villages.
This will concretize the rest of the debate in the race for the Republican nomination – unlike the other candidates Guiliani is running an open campaign. He’s laid out actual commitments and very clear specific positions on numerous issues. The other Republicans will need to move from postures and generalities to clear stances and positions on specific issues when they hit Florida to compete.
It’s noteworthy that while there was a vacuum on Rudy news in the national press, the regional press in Florida has been running a steady stream of stories as the local reporters have been thrilled to have sole access to one of the Republican front-runners the past two weeks.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban stronghold is in the Waziristans, with the main nexus being South Waziristan, but occasionally you see them very active with targetted strikes in urban areas of the Sindh and Punjab. The most significant operations were Lal Masjid, and the various assasination attempts including the successful one against Benazir Bhutto (more on that here and here.) It’s notable that they have met with more success at the edges of the Urban areas and the frontiers – Lal Masjid and the successful assasination attempt were at the edge of the frontiers.
To effect operations in urban areas there are really only three options for them; all of which have drawbacks. They can ally with particular groups, they can import the operatives, or they can hire.
The best example of all three is Lal Masjid. The majority of the students in Lal Masjid were from the frontiers, or from the families of Old-guard ISI, the Hamid Gul contingent. They also worked with some criminal gangs to gain their weapons.
In the assasination attempts on Musharraf you see clear signs of them working with disaffected Military personell (the weapons used have been military rockets and machine guns, both obtainable only from the Army.)
The targetted assasination attempts against Benazir Bhutto were both logistically enabled by importing small cells and arming from criminal gangs.
What are the drawbacks of these methods? Importing operatives makes them less than effective since they tend to not know the city and they stick out; using criminal gangs for hire makes for mercenary allies who can be turned; and once an Army insider is used then that particular resource is burnt.
Their enablers and sympathizers in the cities are one part of the MMA party and JI, the Madrassahs, and some student groups on various campus’ in the cities.
So as with all insurgencies it would pay the government to watch for new people in the cities, the criminal gangs, and the student groups for that is where the insurgency will grow if TTP makes a bid to move into Urban areas.
In an example of how these things fall apart once moving deeper into the Sindh and Punjab you see this failed attempt in Karachi.
Karachi—Timely scanning helped police to round up five suspects here Saturday allegedly involved in planning to give a terror blow to Karachi during religious processions of Ashura-e-Moharam.
Four of the arrested terrorists had undergone training at a terrorist camp in Mir Ali’s tribal area. The gang leader Mohammed Aijaz alias Abdul Rehman had been imparting training in terrorism at various training camps after Afghan war and was a teacher at a “warfare” training camp in South Waziristan.
Azhar Farooqui IG Police Sindh told a press conference that five terror suspects including an alleged suicide bomber Aziz Ahmed alias Muhammad Khan, Muhammad Ejaz alias Abdul Rahman, Jamil Ahmed alias Wazir Akbar, Muhammad Hamid alias Qasim and Muhammad Wasim alias Imran.
IGP said that police recovered 6Kg explosives laid in the suicide jacket, 3 hand grenades, 6 detonators, 15 meter detonating wire, 500 grams cyanide, one generator used to generate remote control, 2 TT pistols with 20 rounds, 2 Kg ball bearings and one Kg spikes.
Pakistan authorities have arrested a fifteen year old teen in Dera Ishmael Khan for the assasination of former Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto. This could be a Lal Masjid follower from the age. Story from the Daily Times:
DERA ISMAIL KHAN: Security officials in the NWFP said on Saturday they had arrested a teenager allegedly involved in last month’s assassination of former premier Benazir Bhutto, reported AP.
Aitezaz Shah, 15, told investigators that he had been part of a five-man squad deployed that day in Rawalpindi, a senior intelligence official, asking not to be named, said.
Aitezaz was arrested on Thursday in Dera Ismail Khan with another militant identified as Sher Zaman, according to the officials.
The two terrorists have confessed their involvement in the plot to kill Benazir, ARY television quoted Interior Secretary Syed Kamal Shah as saying.
In political news PML-N is hinting they would like talks with President Musharraf, a sign that they potentially are not as strong as they would appear to be going into elections. Right now Musharraf is relatively on the outs with the Pakistani people, but rhetoric aside the politicians in his PML-Q party and the heft they bring in parliament are still needed for any coalition. Whether that is formed with PML-N or PPP will be the question.
Story Here
In the Waziristan war the government forces have captured 50 Taliban near Wana, a sign that they are pressing harder than they stated yesterday when they said there would be “no offensive”. Story Here
In the Swat Campaign the troops continue to advance, and they are carrying on with policy of burning the houses of the leaders who broke the Jirga accords. Story here.
MINGORA: Security forces have taken control of the Namal, Shor and Sardan Top areas in Matta tehsil of the troubled Swat district in an ongoing operation against extremists on Saturday.
Militants have vacated the areas of Manja, Totanoo Bandai, Shah Dheri in Kabal tehsil and Puchar, Namal, Sardan Top and Shor in Matta tehsil, which were strongholds of Fazlullah, sources added. They said militants’ bunkers in these areas were empty, and they took their weapons with them as they moved to unknown locations.
The troops imposed a curfew during their forward march in the areas from 7pm on Friday night and no one was allowed to come out of their houses.
The security forces, during the operation, destroyed the houses of local militant commanders Sayed Karim, Lajbar Khan, Sahib and Bin Yamin, a close aide of rebel cleric Maulana Fazlullah.
