We have a new family member, her name is Casie.
Month: December 2007
Still Hostage
Jonathan Cote and his fellow hostages are still out there waiting for freedom, they aren’t at home preparing for the holidays as they should be. Keep them in your thoughts and prayers if you would friends.
In an update to the Hostage a Year article earlier about the four American and one German contractors held hostage, I’ve located the Brookings institute report that the numbers came from. It turns out that the number of hostages taken stands at 305, but many have been killed, have been rescued, or have been returned. The full details are below, picked out from the footnotes of the table. I want to thank Vicki for leading me to this, I passed by this data twice and missed the footnotes in my search.
In an important update there are new indicators that these hostages are still alive, as this story from The Buffalo News reports:
The family of former Amherst resident Jonathon M. Cote, one of five Western security contractors kidnapped in Iraq last year, was being cautious Monday about comments from an employer of the security workers who said they are still alive and being actively sought by the company and the U.S. government.
Crescent Security Group managing partner Franco Picco said the company has been working with the FBI to find the men. They are alive, Picco told the Associated Press in a telephone call from Kuwait, and “we do have an idea where they are.” Company officials said they were
exerting all of their efforts to secure the release of the hostages. The search has been difficult, Picco said, but “we’ll get the guys back.”
Below is the data on all of the hostages taken since 2003:
FOREIGN NATIONALS KIDNAPPED IN IRAQ SINCE MAY 2003
Total through October 28, 2007 305
54 killed
147 released
4 escaped
6 rescued
89 unknown
NOTE ON FOREIGN NATIONALS KIDNAPPED IN IRAQ TABLE:*Developments: This category shows activity in the status of hostages, but does not necessarily apply to hostages kidnapped during the same month. Please see footnote for more information. According to the Baghdad Hostage Working Group at the US Embassy in Baghdad as cited in Erik Rye and Joon Mo Kang, “Hostages of War,” New York Times, May 17, 2006, 439 foreigners have been kidnapped in Baghdad since the start of the war. These include:
165 private contractors
63 (mostly truck) drivers
39 journalists
23 NGO workers
15 diplomats/gov’t employees.
An Associated Press tally shows that at least 13 Americans have been kidnapped. Four have been killed, four have escaped or been freed and five are considered taken, missing, or unknown. This list may be incomplete. “The Fate of Americans Taken Hostage in Iraq,” Associated Press, January 20, 2006.
Jonathan Cote and his fellow hostages are still out there waiting for freedom, they aren’t at home preparing for the holidays as they should be. Keep them in your thoughts and prayers if you would friends.
Further resources:
The Brookings Institute Iraq Index 10-29 (PDF Link) – contains many good charts and stats on how the surge is going as well.)
US policy for Hostage situations (PDF Link)
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A Date Which Will Live in Infamy
President Franklin D. Roosevelt:
Yesterday, December 7, 1941—a date which will live in infamy—the United States of American was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan.
The United States was at peace with that nation, and, at the solicitation of Japan, was still in conversation with its government and its emperor looking toward the maintenance of peace in the Pacific. Indeed, one hour after Japanese air squadrons had commenced bombing in the American island of Oahu, the Japanese ambassador to the United States and his colleague delivered to our secretary of state a formal reply to a recent American message. While this reply stated that it seemed useless to continue the existing diplomatic negotiations, it contained no threat or hint of war or armed attack.
It will be recorded that the distance of Hawaii from Japan makes it obvious that the attack was deliberately planned many days or even weeks ago. During the intervening time the Japanese government has deliberately sought to deceive the United States by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.
The attack yesterday on the Hawaiian Islands has caused severe damage to American naval and military forces. I regret to tell you that very many American lives have been lost. In addition, American ships have been reported torpedoed on the high seas between San Francisco and Honolulu.
Yesterday the Japanese government also launched as attack against Malaya.
Last night Japanese forces attacked Hong Kong.
Last night Japanese forces attacked Guam.
Last night Japanese forces attacked the Philippine Islands.
Last night Japanese forces attacked Wake Island.
And this morning the Japanese attacked Midway Island.
Japan has, therefore, undertaken a surprise offensive extending throughout the Pacific area. The facts of yesterday and today speak for themselves. The people of the United States have already formed their opinions and well understand the implications to the very life and safety of our nation.
As commander in chief of the Army and Navy I have directed that all measures be taken for our defense. But always will our whole nation remember the character of the onslaught against us. . .
More on Remembering Pearl Harbor day at :
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The Sixth Day of Christmas
Parcel Bomb in Paris
There are reports coming from Paris that a Parcel bomb has killed one person with others injured or in shock. This story is just breaking,
There are reports coming from Paris that a Parcel bomb has killed one person with others injured or in shock. This story is just breaking, more to come.
Apparently a package was left at a lawyer’s office and the secretary who opened it was killed in the blast.
From AP:
PARIS (AP) — A parcel bomb exploded in central Paris on Thursday, killing one person and seriously injuring another, the Interior Ministry said.
The ministry said several other people were suffering from shock. It did not say who might have been behind the bombing.
According to Earth times the bomb exploded at a building housing mostly law firms, including one founded by France’s current President, Sarkozy.
One person was killed and five were injured Thursday when a package exploded near the offices of a Paris law firm founded by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, France-Info radio reported Thursday. The victim and most of the injured worked for some of the law firms housed in the building in the elegant Eight Arrondissement in central Paris.
One of those firms was co-founded by Sarkozy in 1987 and bore his name until May 9 of this year, a week before he was sworn in as president.
No connection has yet been made between Sarkozy’s tie to the firm and the bombing.
In other news from France, unrelated at this time, two members of the Basque Tribal Nationalist group ETA were arrested by French authorities for shooting two Spanish police officers. from AFP:
MENDE, France (AFP) — Two suspected members of Basque separatist group ETA were arrested Wednesday over the weekend shooting of two Spanish policemen in southwest France, hours after the second officer died in hospital of his injuries.
The pair, a man and a woman, were carrying large amounts of cash and loaded guns but did not resist arrest at a bus stop in the remote village of Chateauneuf de Randon, a source close to the probe said.
Police had spotted the couple in the southern city of Rodez, tailing them as they went by taxi northwest to Mende, some 100 kilometres (65 miles) away, where they spent Tuesday night in a hotel before heading, again by taxi, to Chateauneuf, 30 kilometres (20 miles) further on.
“It was the couple the police had been hunting for three days,” the source said.
They were transferred to Paris late Wednesday, investigators said.
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NIE Turnabout Based on Captured Notes
The other very worrisome thing about all this is that once again the CIA seems more willing to talk to reporters at the New York Times than the Pentagon or the President. Is the whole agency renegade, or just some within the leadership?
The New York Times details how the turnabout in assesssment of Iran’s Nuclear Weapons program came from one set of captured notes. The notes were from deliberations among Iranian military officials over nuclear programs, with some expressing regrets over the program being suspended in 2003.
This doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy — while they vetted the notes themselves in the CIA and had a red opposition team question the conclusion unsuccessfully, it’s still just one source, the conclusion is still based on human judgement from an agency that seems more political than analytical, and it’s still based on just one set of notes and some secondary corrobation from recorded conversations. The conversations could be the same military officials, and they could be misinformed either on purpose or out of ignorance.
The notes and the conversations could be a plant, or the notes and conversations could still be real and be wrong. This doesn’t make me more comfortable about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, nor does it make it less likely that Iran could have nuclear capabilities in two years if they decided to unsuspend tomorrow.
Story at New York Times:
The notes included conversations and deliberations in which some of the military officials complained bitterly about what they termed a decision by their superiors in late 2003 to shut down a complex engineering effort to design nuclear weapons, including a warhead that could fit atop Iranian missiles.
The newly obtained notes contradicted public assertions by American intelligence officials that the nuclear weapons design effort was still active. But according to the intelligence and government officials, they give no hint of why Iran’s leadership decided to halt the covert effort.
Ultimately, the notes and deliberations were corroborated by other intelligence, the officials said, including intercepted conversations among Iranian officials, collected in recent months. It is not clear if those conversations involved the same officers and others whose deliberations were recounted in the notes, or if they included their superiors.
The American officials who described the highly classified operation, which led to one of the biggest reversals in the history of American nuclear intelligence, declined to describe how the notes were obtained.
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On the Fifth Day of Christmas
On the Fifth day of Christmas
my true love gave to me
Fried Chicken Wings
On the fourth day of Christmas
My true-love gave to me
four fallen bulbs.
.
On the third day of Christmas
my true-love gave to me
three dust bins
.
On the second day of Christmas
my true-love gave to me
two silver statues
.
On the first day of Christmas
my true love gave to me
A Hallmark ornament
on a plastic tree
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Fingar Fingered
Michael Goldfarb at The Weekly Standard has a very interesting article on Fingar Flipping regarding Iranian nuclear intent, it’s a must-read:
Consider that on July 11, 2007, roughly four or so months prior to the most recent NIE’s publication, Deputy Director of Analysis Thomas Fingar gave the following testimony before the House Armed Services Committee (emphasis added):
Iran and North Korea are the states of most concern to us. The United States’ concerns about Iran are shared by many nations, including many of Iran’s neighbors. Iran is continuing to pursue uranium enrichment and has shown more interest in protracting negotiations and working to delay and diminish the impact of UNSC sanctions than in reaching an acceptable diplomatic solution. We assess that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons–despite its international obligations and international pressure. This is a grave concern to the other countries in the region whose security would be threatened should Iran acquire nuclear weapons.
……
The inconsistencies are more troubling when we realize that, according to the Wall Street Journal, Thomas Fingar is one of the three officials who were responsible for crafting the latest NIE.
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Al Qaeda Roundup: 40 AQ in Iraq Killed or Captured
US forces in Iraq killed or captured 40 Al Qaeda in Iraq fighters last month, including a high-value target, Abu Masari, an aide to AQ in Iraq leader Al Masri. From USA Today:
The U.S. military says 40 high-level members of al-Qaeda in Iraq were captured or killed last month, according to Reuters.
“There is no question that al-Qaeda in Iraq remains a dangerous and vicious threat to the Iraqi people and to the security forces and the coalition forces,” Maj. Gen. Kevin Bergner tells reporters, adding: “we still have a tough fight ahead of us even amidst the progress.”
I agree – Al Qaeda in Iraq must be pursued to demolition, leaving zero room for re-constitution. With Iraqis flowing back into the country and the relative peace from the US surge, it’s an effort that must not be forsaken or let up on.
Update: more on this theme from Michael Yon
In new reports Strategy page and others indicate that the AQ strategy has shifted East to Afghanistan, something I pointed out last June.
Al Qaeda appears to be moving its main effort to Afghanistan, after operations in Iraq, North Africa, Somalia and Europe (not to mention North America) have all largely failed. But continued Taliban activity in Pakistan and Afghanistan has provided al Qaeda with one area where they might be able to have a little success. But that will require a change in methods. In the rest of the world, al Qaeda has caused itself lots of problems by using terror tactics against Moslems (who refused to support the terrorists). This approach worked, for a while, but eventually the Moslem victims had enough and turned on al Qaeda
Originally the intent was not just Afghanistan, but also Pakistan. Things have shifted in the tribal lands there, and the areas allowed to Al Qaeda in Pakistan by the tribes are narrowed. The rise of the Taliban in the frontiers is highly troublesome, but due to inter-tribal rivalries and splits I suspect there are areas where AQ foreign fighters would not be welcome. This doesn’t mean the areas are any more governable, it just means that there is a “Pakistan Taliban” interested in their own regional power over Al Qaeda’s aims.
One other thing worthy of note: Now that Bin Laden is releasing more tape, Zawahiri’s spate of tapes seems to have ended for the moment. This indicates to me that they swapped off agit-prop duties while they were each in transit, or that Bin Laden has re-asserted authority after some in-fighting.
Meanwhile three AQ terrorists in Germany were sentenced, and the recruitment efforts continue as Reuters reports that there are now 5,600 AQ websites worldwide.
RIYADH (Reuters) – There are now about 5,600 Web sites spreading al Qaeda’s ideology worldwide, and 900 more are appearing each year, a Saudi researcher told a national security conference on Tuesday.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, has identified the Internet as a key battlefield with militants who launched a campaign to topple the U.S.-allied ruling royal family in 2003.
“Research shows there are more than 5,600 sites on the Internet promoting the ideology of al Qaeda,” Khaled al-Faram told the Information Technology and National Security conference in the Saudi capital Riyadh.
“There are some 900 news sites appearing every year, and despite the retreat of some media outlets specifically run by al Qaeda, extremist Web sites are constantly on the rise.”
He said it was difficult to track most of the sites, though hardcore al Qaeda sites often change addresses to avoid detection or start up again elsewhere once infiltrated.
Faram was addressing a conference organized by the Saudi intelligence agency to encourage the public to cooperate more with the government and share expertise on how to survey the Internet for militant activity.
The US also designated Abdelmalek Droukdel from Algeria as an AQ terrorist, and froze his assets.
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Medivac Chopper Missing Near Cordova Alaska
A medivac chopper went missing traveling from Cordova to Anchorage overnight, high winds and low clouds are hampering the search efforts. It went down in an area of jagged inlets where the roots of the mountains are planted in the sea. Wish the searchers well, but this time of year the outlook for a successful rescue is pretty grim.
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) – Volunteers joined a Coast Guard search Tuesday for a medical helicopter that vanished in snow and heavy wind while carrying a patient and medical crew over mountainous coastal terrain. A Coast Guard cutter was searching for the LifeGuard Alaska helicopter, listening for signals from the helicopter’s emergency beacon near its last known position over the southeast side of Esther Island in Prince William Sound, about 75 miles southeast of Anchorage. Volunteers directed by Alaska State Troopers joined the search in three fishing boats.
The helicopter was heading about 150 miles from Cordova to the Providence Alaska Medical Center in Anchorage when it disappeared early Monday evening, authorities said. The helicopter crew had made a satellite phone call at 5:18 p.m., but it was not a distress call, Coast Guard Lt. John McWhite said.
