Is Pakistan at Verge of War, or Verge of Coup?

There’s a lot of speculation out regarding the tense situation over the Mumbai terror attacks, and that’s expected to increase now that the captured terrorist has been tracked back to a village in Pakistan. Senators McCain and Lieberman are in Islamabad now, after a stopover in India.

Senator McCain has warned Pakistan pretty clearly that India might start bombing LeT camps if Pakistan did nothing, and further that we would try to calm India, but that there wouldn’t be much we would do. To India this is their 9/11 and it would be hypocritical of us if we were say that India couldn’t retaliate.

In the meantime rumors of a military coup in response to the escalation of tension between India and Pakistan are making the rounds, probably as outcome of the meeting General Kayani, Chief of Army staff, held with Prime Minister Gilani yesterday. I would give that one 24 hour rule, since those rumors come out anytime the military visits civil government heads, usually politically motivated in nature. It’s doubtful to me at this point that General Kayani would pull a coup, but he is in solidarity with the Civilian government by saying “show us the evidence.” That makes sense because of the rumors that ISI or former ISI people are involved, those rumors have been floated mostly by the hardliners in India’s intel agency, RAW, and speculative journalists.

At most I would posit that Hamid Gul’s faction of deposed ISI might have been involved. They are the ones with Karachi ties, and used to coordinating across urban and rural terror groups. Some of Gul’s old confidant’s are also on the list that the US is proffering as terrorists to the UN.

The terror groups are not going to let up, they are continuing the new Al Qaeda doctrine of destabilization to create wildernesses, (ungoverned areas where AQ and affiliates can operate; it’s only in areas where zero law exists that people will accept AQ’s extreme brand of Shariah.) Today a bomb was found and defused in a nursing home in India, and in Peshawar the death toll from the bazaar bomb blast has climbed to 34.

I wrote about this possibility a few months back – the war in Afghanistan has become much less popular among young recruits simply because they know they will be fighting Afghanistan Army and police there, or other muslims. The Kashmir is a more popular cause within Pakistan, so it’s not a surprise that AQ has shifted focus to that because they have decreased greatly in popularity since starting the civil war in the Frontiers of Pakistan.

There’s also one other player in this to pay attention to: China also holds a piece of the Kashmir, and while they are calling for calm, they are holding joint war games with India right now.

13 Taliban were killed by Pakistan army forces in Swat, and the Taliban continues their targetted assassinations of government, tribal, and ANP party members there. The war in the frontiers continue, but at times it doesn’t appear that the civilian gov’t realizes how serious it is. The clock is ticking on them now, if they don’t get the Taliban and AQ leadership soon, it is they who will be gotten. More on this at The Long War Journal. Roggio is speculating that ISI itself, and not just the renegade elements, migh be directly involved.

What’s on the mind of the average Pakistani? The Chief Justice Dogar case, where a SC judge’s daughter was given higher marks in school by decree. In Pakistan, they love their constitutional crisis’ as this is being looked at by the National Assembly.

If Pakistan does not do anything here, at some point it will become necessary for others to step in. I could see an India/China/US intervention if the government doesn’t move soon since they are firmly on the path to failed state and Somalihood now.

1 thought on “Is Pakistan at Verge of War, or Verge of Coup?”

  1. It seems that Pakistan is all but leaderless right now.
    The Pakistani army and police are good fighters when led right, but now they seem to be wandering around without any clear mission. The leaders in Pakistan seem to be afraid to anger the Taliban and AQ and are not applying pressure on them. If the government doesn’t get rid of the terrorists, the terrorists will get rid of the government…

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