When you shelter vipers for ten or more years, you should expect to get bit. Especially if all your neighbors chase them home to you. After large-scale failures in both Iraq and Afghanistan, Al Qaeda and the affiliated terror groups that shelter under their umbrella have no place better than Pakistan to run or hide.
Pakistan will continue to bear the brunt of the war on terror in the forseeable future due to their ambivalence. From the Post:
LAHORE: Pakistan is not only among the countries with the highest incidence of terrorism but it also tops the list of suicide bombings, leaving Afghanistan and Iraq behind during the first three months of 2008.During this period, Pakistan experienced eighteen suicide attacks in which more than 250 people died. Whereas in both war-ridden countries, Afghanistan and Iraq, had a fewer number of suicide attacks.Iraq experienced thirteen suicide bombings which claimed 274 lives while 15 people died in three suicide attacks in Afghanistan during the first three months of 2008.In 2007, Iraq topped the list of bombings and fatalities among these three countries with more than 150 suicide attacks. Afghanistan had more than 100 suicide attacks and Pakistan came third with 56 attacks but had more fatalities than that of Afghanistan.
In America the vile Reverend Wright talks of chickens home to roost, but since late 2006 I’ve been predicting that Pakistan’s crows would come back to haunt them forevermore.
The new government is already trying to arrange a truce with them, but that “hudna” will be short lived. AQ needs a base, and they’ve decided on Pakistan as the best option right now.
Bill Roggio has been reporting the uptick in terror groups in the frontiers at least as long as I have, and originally I assumed it was not a problem. Indeed, back in 2006 I was disagreeing with Bill on the import of it.
Like James Dunning, I thought “well the Sindh and the Punjab will take care of the frontiers if they get too out of hand.” That calculation did not factor in the weakness of the political structures, the fact that Al Qaeda has co-opted several criminal groups and gangs in the Sindh and Punjab Urban regions, and my assumptions then did not account for the growing radicalization of the colleges and the influence of Jundullah in urban areas.
So the future looks dim if the PPP and their new government allies do not get a grip on reality. As the college campus fights and Lal Masjid both demonstrate, it’s not just the Fundamentalist extremist and suicide bombers from the frontiers the urban moderates have to fear – it’s also their own children.