Pakistan Emergency Rule Analysis

WARNING: This is neither news nor fact, this is 100% speculation on my part, I could be partially or wholly wrong in any of the following.

The timing of the Emergency Rule declaration leads me to believe that Musharraf has tired of the court’s dragging out of the challenges to his election as President of Pakistan. Come November 15th, he would be outside of constitutional authority if he did not either remove the uniform or resign as President. He wants to ensure that he has some position in directing Pakistan’s future, but there are only 12 days to go until he would hit the limbo of being uncertain of any position.

If he waits and they don’t make the decision and he hung up the uniform before the Supreme court decided, then he could be declared illegal as a candidate for president, and lose both the fallback of Chief of Army staff, and the future as President. I suspect he got tired of waiting on his long time political opponents, the Chaudry’s, to decide. It also makes me wonder if he had not given the court a deadline to decide by.

State of Emergency in Pakistan: Constitution Suspended

sc-roadblock.jpgThe Globe and Mail is reporting that Pakistan’s President Chief of Army Staff Musharraf has declared a state of emergency and suspended the constitution of Pakistan. This gives him near-dictatorial powers, and is highly concerning for the future freedom of the state.

UPDATE: Musharraff as The Chief of Army Staff declared the state of emergency, not as President Musharrafthis could be a Coup in the shaping; or it could be a ploy to get the court to finish the deliberations on the challenges prior to the November 15th date when Musharraf’s holding of two offices definitely becomes unconstitutional. (note: although Musharraf was elected President and has appointed a successor as COAS, he’s still technically the Chief, so the state of emergency IS from Musharraf, but under the office of Army Chief of Staff)

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Pakistan Update: Swat Truce Crumbles

In Swat the truce has broken down and a series of violent events have taken place across the country. Al Qaeda and the Taliban continue to roadblock the path to democracy by fighting against the current government of Pakistan. Their goal is to create a chaotic state where they can rule in areas through intimidation.

In Swat the Army attacked the militants after receiving fire on a recon helicopter, killing between 15-18 and a close aid to Fazlullah. TNSM threatened suicide bombers over their illegal FM radio station.

In Miranshah the AQAM (Al Qaeda and Allied movements) forces attacked outposts with rockets, initiating return fire from the Army that destroyed a hotel, killing four civilians.

In Rawalpindi motorcycle gunners shot at a police patrol after they were flagged down, injuring one officer.

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