Pakistan Update: The Falcon Flies in Wider Gyre

UPDATE: Benazir Bhutto once more under house arrest to top the long march motorcade. Story at Reuters

UPDATE: The rhetoric has stiffened, with PML-N and Jamiaat e Islami threatening boycott of the Parliamentary elections. This is a standard tactic of dissident conservative minorities & Islamist minorities in Islamic countries (note similar moves in the past by Hezbollah in Lebanon, MMA in Pakistan previously, and the extreme parties in Iraq during their elections.) Sorry, but elections are elections – if you choose to boycott, then you do not invalidate them. 

Previously: 

I’ve been struggling for two hours to come up with a lead for tonight’s update, but the picture in Pakistan has become so confused that a simple retelling of events without context would just add confusion. So I’ve been seeking a lead in — none so far fit, but the closest is an apocalyptic poem.

 Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity. – Yeats

Is Musharraf doing the right thing? Time will be the judge.

On the one hand he has political opponents trying to form mass populist rallies while on the other he has Islamist fanatics who want to bomb those rallies. Allow more freedom, or protect the innocent and earnest? A martyred Bhutto sparks the civil war that would tear the soul from Pakistan and make rubble of the dreams of all factions, even those who revel in chaos, for this chaos would crush even them.

In the frontiers Islamist tyranny creeps forward engulfing regions, and foreigners have declared war and insurrection against the government. On the other hand government has become a soft tyranny: stopping rallies, muzzling press, and suspending rights. Dire situations call for dire measures, but is the threat from the frontiers great enough to warrant it?

I suspect that the threat is greater than those in the urban areas think, for the Frontier Corps army will not stand against that foe, even though the Islamists would have no qualms at taking their heads, muslim brother or not. Add to that all the forces that have exited Iraq to Pakistan, the wolves across the borders to the north and to the west, and I would call it dire.

Many are characterizing this as the new Great Game, but really it’s the regional game – it’s Pakistan’s neighbors, tribal nationalist groups, and sects that lend the instability, not the ex-colonial powers anymore.

That said on to the news.

Musharraf has stated that he will hold parliamentary elections in early January, and that he will remove the uniform once the Supreme court clears him for position as President. That sounds reasonable if it happens, and is a good sign. The press although “muzzled” still reports on Musharraf in unkind manner, and factually, however when they become too deeply critical then the clamps come down. So there are three BBC corespondents exiting the country, and some stations have been cautioned.

In the background Bhutto has stated that Chief Justice Iftikhar is the only true justice of the court, which is passing strange, and she has reached out to PML-N to join her. She plans a long march to Islamabad, 300 miles of motorcade, and Musharraf has stated that he will stop that. BB is displaying a great deal of courage, standing forthright even though she is a target, and that you must admire — assembly, speech, and association should all be free and never suffer intimidation, either from the government or from the Islamists who would tear the country to splinters.

The army is caught in the middle — but this needs to be said – the people of Pakistan are their backbone regardless of faction. If they can’t face the Islamists it is because the people are not giving them the support and the moral authority they need to do so. Regardless of the fools who are leading I think Pakistan must support the troops direct if they are to have a future.

2 Replies to “Pakistan Update: The Falcon Flies in Wider Gyre”

  1. I agree with much of what you say, but must add that the “Frontier Troops” are barely bettered trained/armed or recieve air support than any militia you care to name.
    I think Mushareef, if he’s serious about staying alive, much less becoming President (with Bhutto in-country biting at his heels every day) he’s going to have to “shake up” his Army High Command and sic the regular Pakistan Army and Air support on the “wolves” from Iraq and the tribal foces in the frontier areas. Additionally and perhaps most difficult of all, Mushareef has to clean house with the ISI. They are a greater danger to Pakistan than Bhutto or the Wolves from Iraq.
    Lastly, FWIW, I have a friend – Pakistani who came here and became an American Citizen who leaves his job for six weeks or so every year to return home. He leaves a good distance from Kabul – oppostite direction from the frontier/Wazeristans areas and he tells me that people in his city and surrounding villages are MUCH less upset with Mushareef than the Western media (especially the BBC) would have us believe and to the extent that they ARE unhappy with him, it’s because he a) hasn’t had the Regular Paki military go into the frontier areas (something about maintaining Pakistan’s sovereignty – though I didn’t understand that part) and b) he has allowed Bhutto back into Pakistan.
    Just some food for thought my friend!

  2. Yes, the whole BB deal has been brewing two years — I think they average Pakistani doesn’t like that part. If Musharraf would make the right moves he’d be ok. On sending regular army to the frontiers – right now he can’t because he has them pinned down guarding the borders for us, and watching the cities. The sovereignty part is that the frontiers have their own rules, and are somewhat atutonomous, to send in troops he violates that. That’s why he’s using FC, since they come from the frontiers. Since he’s willing to do the PCO/Emergency rule though he shouldn’t have care for that now. It’s kind of like if the president here wants to send the national guard into a state under federal command, he has to have an invite to do so.

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