The Fourth Rail, Little Green Footballs, un-named intel sources, and CNN are all questioning the dissappearance of Al Qaeda and Taliban forces from training camps. They are also pairing that with speculation about Pakistan’s Nuclear forces. Everything they state is factual, but coupling it all together leads to a lot of questions which I will attempt to analyze below.
Update: the Foreign minister from Pakistan has released this statement to counter the worries created by the CNN article:
Speaking to reporters, ministry spokeswoman Tasnim Aslam said Pakistan’s nuclear command and control structures were not controlled by any single individual and had been institutionalised and multi-layered to ensure safety and security at multiple levels since 1998.
She said the country’s strategic assets are governed by “strong multi-layered decision making, organisational, administrative and command and control structures”. She said Pakistan, as a nuclear weapons state, had formally instituted an elaborate Nuclear Command and Control mechanism in February 2000 consisting of the National Command Authority (NCA), the Strategic Plans Division (SPD), and the Strategic Forces Command. pr
Just a reminder: Our government is charged with protecting US citizens, to do that our intel agencies sometimes speculate in “worst case scenarios”. The press almost always runs with “worst case” when presented with a spectrum of possibilities because it makes for a better headline and sells more ads.
UPDATE: Missing soldiers held by Taliban
First there are a series of seasonal events, coupled with failed intiatives and Pakistan Army movements that work together to empty the camps: